Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Back to the New Site

2005-11-28T07:45:00.000-05:00

Visit us at http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com

All updates will be there.

Projected Winners

2005-11-08T23:59:00.000-05:00

This post is going to be on top all night, check below for updates. Here is our current list of projected winners.

58 Republicans (-2)
39 Democrats (+1)
3 Independents (+1)

1st District- Terry Kilgore
2nd District- Bud Phillips
3rd District- Jackie Stump
4th District- Joe Johnson
5th District- Bill Carrico
6th District- Anne Crockett- Stark (Pickup)
7th District- Dave Nutter
8th District- Morgan Griffith
9th District- Allen Dudley
10th District- Ward Armstrong
11th District- Onzlee Ware
12th District- Jim Shuler
13th District- Bob Marshall
14th District- Danny Marshall
15th District- Craig Gilbert
16th District- Robert Hurt
17th District- Bill Fralin
18th District- Clay Athey
19th District- Lacey Putney
20th District- Chris Saxman
21st District- John Welch
22nd District- Kathy Byron
23rd District- Preston Bryant
24th District- Ben Cline
25th District- Steve Landes
26th District- Matt Lohr
27th District- Sam Nixon
28th District- Bill Howell
29th District- Beverly Sherwood
30th District- Ed Scott
31st District- Scott Lingamfelter
32nd District- David Poisson (Pickup)
33rd District- Joe May
34th District- Vince Callahan
35th District- Steve Shannon
36th Distict- Ken Plum
37th District- David Bulova
38th District- Bob Hull
39th District- Vivian Watts
40th District- Tim Hugo
41st District- David Marsden (pickup)
42nd District- Dave Albo
43rd District- Mark Sickles
44th District- Kris Amundson
45th District- David Englin
46th District- Brian Moran
47th District- Al Eisenberg
48th District- Bob Brink
49th District- Adam Ebbin
50th District- Harry Parrish
51st District- Michelle McQuigg
52nd District- Jeff Frederick
53rd District- Jim Scott
54th District- Bobby Orrock
55th District- Frank Hargrove
56th District- Bill Janis
57th District- David Toscano
58th District- Rob Bell
59th District- Watkins Abbitt
60th District- Clarke Hogan
61st District- Thomas Wright
62nd District- Riley Ingram
63rd District- Roslyn Dance
64th District- William Barlow
65th District- Lee Ware
66th District- Kirk Cox
67th District- Chuck Caputo (Pickup)
68th District- Katherine Waddell (Pickup)
69th District- Frank Hall
70th District- Dwight Jones
71st District- Jennifer McClellan
72nd District- Jack Reid
73rd District- John O'Bannon
74th District- Donald McEachin
75th District- Roslyn Tyler
76th District- Chris Jones
77th District- Lionnell Spruill
78th District- John Cosgrove
79th District- Johnny Joannou
80th District- Ken Melvin
81st District- Terri Suit
82nd District- Bob Purkey
83rd District- Leo Wardrup
84th District- Sal Iaquinto
85th District- Bob Tata
86th District- Tom Rust
87th District- Paula Miller
88th District- Mark Cole
89th District- Kenny Alexander
90th District- Algie Howell
91st District- Tom Gear
92nd District- Jeion Ward
93rd District- Phillip Hamilton
94th District- Glenn Odor
95th District- Mamie Bacote
96th District- Melanie Rapp
97th District- Ryan McDougle
98th District- Harvey Morgan
99th District- Rob Wittman (Pickup)
100th District- Lynwood Lewis

Creigh Deeds Wins- NOT!

2005-11-08T22:47:00.000-05:00

Creigh Deeds is down about 11,000 now, but with precincts in Richmond, Norfolk and Fairfax County's record absentee count still waiting to report, he looks to have been elected. Henrico still has some out, but they are mostly in Varina, a swing area that Bob McDonnell shouldn't win by a large margin.

I could be wrong on this, but thats my take from what is out there.

UPDATE: McDonnell had a damned impressive showing in Hanover to retake the lead. Creigh will end up about 2,000 short.

Bob McDonnell will be your next AG, machine recounts won't change anything at all.

Lt. Governor

2005-11-08T21:57:00.000-05:00

We are now ready to project Bill Bolling as the winner, defeating Leslie Byrne

This was a GOP pickup.

52nd District

2005-11-08T21:54:00.001-05:00

This one may go to a recount, but it appears Jeff Frederick will narrowly defeat Hilda Barg

This one could change if Hilda does really well in absentees

32nd District

2005-11-08T21:54:00.000-05:00

David Poisson defeats incumbent Dick Black

75th District

2005-11-08T21:42:00.000-05:00

Roslyn Tyler defeats Carson Saunders in the 75th district in a very close election.

68th District STUNNER

2005-11-08T21:30:00.000-05:00

Katherine Waddell unseats Brad Marrs by 44 votes, waiting for confirmation on this one.

RECOUNT!

87th District

2005-11-08T21:16:00.000-05:00

Paula Miller defeats Michael Ball to retain her seat

9th District

2005-11-08T20:59:00.000-05:00

After a great fight, and winning Franklin County, Eric Ferguson has fallen short. We can now project Allen Dudley as the winner.

84th District

2005-11-08T20:47:00.000-05:00

Sal Ianquinto defeats Supriya Christopher for the open 84th district

6th District

2005-11-08T20:39:00.000-05:00

Anne Crockett-Stark has defeated incumbent Benny Keister for a GOP pickup

26th District

2005-11-08T20:27:00.000-05:00

We can now project Matt Lohr has defeated Lowell Fulk

42nd District

2005-11-08T20:13:00.000-05:00

All precincts reporting, Dave Albo wins 52-48% over Greg Werkheiser

Governor's Race

2005-11-08T19:59:00.000-05:00

We ar enow ready to project Tim Kaine as the winner, defeating Jerry Kilgore

41st District

2005-11-08T19:41:00.000-05:00

We are now ready to project David Marsden as the winner, defeating Michael Golden

67th District

2005-11-08T19:29:00.000-05:00

We can now project Chuck Caputo as the winner defeating Chris Craddock for a Democratic pickup.

37th District

2005-11-08T19:26:00.000-05:00

We can now project David Bulova as the winner, defeating John Mason.

Hampton Roads

2005-11-08T18:13:00.000-05:00

Turnout is low for both parties here. This is killing Bob McDonnell who is getting a good percentage, but not a big margin. McDonnell needs this to change in the next 45 minutes if he is going to beat Creigh Deeds.

The low turnout puts a big question mark on the Paula Miller- Michael Ball race. We assume Miller is pulling through, but anything can happen with turnout this low.

Tom Davis moves in

2005-11-08T17:49:00.000-05:00

42nd District: Toss Up

Tom Davis has sent every one of his operatives to try to save Dave Albo. This race with Greg Werkheiser is a tossup, and this is where Tom is drawing a line in the sand. If this one goes Dem, the GOP could lose 4 seats in the 11th District alone.

52nd District Update

2005-11-08T17:36:00.000-05:00

New Outlook: Toss Up

This was the hottest race earlier in the year, but Jeff Frederick's campaign outran Hilda Barg and seemed to take the lead over the summer. What's going on in Northern Virginia today has blown all that work out the window. This election is going to depend on the Kaine margin in the 52nd.

Statewide

2005-11-08T17:21:00.000-05:00

The numbers now look good for Tim Kaine, Leslie Byrne and Creigh Deeds.

There is still plenty of time, but Northern Virginia is coming back ridiculous right now, and that is a problem for all 3 GOP candidates.

Turnout is a little light in Richmond, but its hard to tell which side is not turning out.

Right now on the Dem side- White Dem targeted voters have higher turnout then African American Dem targets. At 3 p.m. 51% of White Democratic targets had voted, while 46% of Black Dem targets had voted.

If this race is close the statewides will need more African American turnout but many of the competitive house districts are set in areas without a heavy minority population. So the House Dems may be getting a bigger boost then they would otherwise with the White Dem targets coming out in large numbers.

41st District Update

2005-11-08T17:03:00.000-05:00

Outlook: Slight-Lean Democratic

The big Democratic turnout machine seems to have put Dave Marsden into a lead over Michael Golden. This one isn't over yet, but it will be if Michael doesn't get some help from turnout for Jerry Kilgore.

In waves, the best person doesn't always win.

67th Projection

2005-11-08T16:46:00.000-05:00

Chris Craddock's father in law is saying this could be as bad as a 3-1 loss. In addition, we are hearing Chuck Caputo is doing very well at some strong GOP precincts.

New Outlook: Leans Democratic (Pickup)

PROBLEM IN ROANOKE COUNTY?

2005-11-08T16:05:00.000-05:00

FROM NEWS 7

News 7 has received calls from several voters in at least four different precincts who say their votes for Tim Kaine were not recorded or took several attempts to go through.

They contend the electronic touch screens repeatedly indicated they were voting for Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore instead of registering their intended vote for his Democratic opponent Tim Kaine.

Roanoke Co. Registrar Judy Stokes says she doesn't want to say the problem is operator error on the part of the voters, but she points out the touch screens are sensitive. She says anyone who is having difficulty voting should ask one of the poll workers for assistance.

State election officials have been told of the problem. They believe if there is a problem, it could have been caused by the way the machines were stored.

The Kaine compaign is reportedly watching the situation in Roanoke County

3:30 Update

2005-11-08T15:23:00.000-05:00

Here's what we know.

Turnout in NOVA is much higher in precincts with contested House of Delegates races. It's hard to tell what that means for the statewide electorate.

Turnout is looking very good for Lowell Fulk in his race in the 26th district against Matt Lohr. Could he pull off the upset?

What are you hearing?

Typepad Crashes

2005-11-08T14:23:00.000-05:00

We are back up on our old site. Check here for election coverage.

UPDATE: 2:45- everything is now up and going on here, comments are now open.

Update

2005-11-08T12:31:00.000-05:00

Here's what we are hearing:

The 67th District is having a large minority turnout. This could be in response to the "Africans will have sex with anything with a pulse" quote.

Inside Republicans are calling this race for Chuck Caputo. Chris Craddock shouldn't be counted out yet though- and he is showing his brass by standing at Waples Mill Elem. school so far today- the home of Caputo and Gary Reese. Craddock also has a better effort on the ground.

The 68th turnout is higher in Chesterfield then Richmond City, which benefits Brad Marrs over Katherine Waddell. But Richmond City turnout usually picks up around 3 p.m., so don't read too much into that yet.

Republicans are abuzz that Dick Black could be finished. Kaine is doing well there, and that is squeezing Black hard, and might just hand David Poisson an upset victory.

Turnout in SW Virginia is strong, Jerry Kilgore must be pleased with that. Northern Virginia is also strong, Tim Kaine must be pleased with that.

New Home for Virginia2005

2005-07-24T09:00:00.000-04:00

We have a new home! Click here!

In case anyone is wondering why we needed to upgrade this site you can see the last comment in this thread as an example of what had happened to our comments section. On the new site, we can ban IP addresses that chose to behave like that.

Pardon the dust while we rebuild on the new site! New Posts are already up there, and we will leave this site/old posts up for history to judge.

Thanks to all of our loyal readers.

41st District Update (#7 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-22T14:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Toss Up

---------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

GOLDEN------$26,515-------------------$101,941-------------------$37,559
MARSDEN----$32,376------------------$119,439------------------$90,526

Dave Marsden has opened up a slight lead in money raised, but a wide lead in cash on hand. Unlike candidates Frederick and Werkheiser, it looks like Golden's money was spent on voter contact leading up the June 14th primary. We said last week it would be a moral victory if Golden was within a 5-1 cash on hand margin after his primary, as we expected his numbers to be similar to the $10,000 on hand each candidate in the 37th has. So Golden has exceeded expectations here, but he still has a big cash deficit to make up going into the fall.

68th District Update

2005-07-21T18:30:00.000-04:00

Old Outlook: Likely Republican
New Outlook: Safe Republican

In a race that looked interesting for a while the opposition has fizzled and Brad Marrs is going back for a third term as Delegate.

Update on 6th District (#8 on Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-21T13:30:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Democratic

---------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

KEISTER------------$19,682-------------$55,048-----------------$17,769
CROCKETT-STARK-$17,659--------------$17,659------------------$17,242

The 6th district hosted the closest race in 2003, decided by less than 100 votes. Democrats can't be happy that after that scare Benny Keister has been so inactive. When your opponent announces in June, and you only lead by $500 at the end of the month there is trouble on the horizon. A little more information here will push this to a tossup.

42nd District Update (#9 on Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-20T23:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Republican

---------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

ALBO----------$63,081------------------$293,297----------------$204,056
WERKHEISER-$34,437------------------$232,821------------------$127,792

Dave Albo widens his fundraising lead over Greg Werkheiser here. One positive for Greg is that he cut his spending down significantly in June. However, it appears a lot of staff/consultant costs were deferred until after the reporting period, so it is hard to tell how much is cutback and how much is July dated checks.

With all this money coming into the district will either candidate be able to break through and be heard in the fall?

35th District (#10 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-20T12:00:00.000-04:00

Reports for the 10th District (#11 on Dirty Dozen) were not yet available for both candidates.

Old Outlook: Leans Democratic
New Outlook: Likely Democratic

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

SHANNON------$18,607------------------$248,285-----------------$194,144
HYLAND--------$18,954-------------------$60,525--------------------$8,100

With every update the 35th District seems to be just a little more out of reach for the GOP...

39th District Continued (#12 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-19T16:30:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Likely Democratic

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

WATTS--------$12,930-----------------$60,612--------------------$41,360
MEUNIER-----$30,615----------------$147,236-----------------$104,201

Republican Michael Meunier has surged with fundraising but almost all of it is coming from out of state. Is he going to use this money to get the upset of the year- or is he going the way of Ed Robinson from the 35th who raised almost all of his money from out of state and then was defeated?

We still think this looks more like wasted money, but we could be convinced otherwise if Meunier starts running a real campaign. He can start by showing one contribution from inside his district on the next report.

Uncalled Races- Not on the Dirty Dozen

2005-07-18T15:45:00.000-04:00

Here's a money update for our uncalled races that didn't make the "Dirty Dozen" list of the top 12 battles.

9th District
Outlook: Likely Republican

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

DUDLEY---------- $9,497 -------------------$101,005-------------$94,001
FERGUSON------$29,151------------------$62,743----------------$47,024

Challenger Eric Ferguson cuts down on Allen Dudley's financial advantage in June. Both candidates have been very tight with spending so far. Dudley still has a big advantage here, but Ferguson is making the right moves to keep this race on the "uncalled" list.

32nd District
Outlook: Likely Republican

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

BLACK-----------$14,700----------------$305,920----------------$216,703
POISSON---------$20,758---------------$108,660------------------$61,058

Challenger David Poisson wins June but does not even dent Dick Black's financial advantage.

51st District
Outlook: Likely Republican

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

MCQUIGG--------$8,750-----------------$86,751-------------------$55,970
PORTA-----------$11,436----------------$67,552--------------------$46,088

Porta continues to stay close in fundraising to the popular McQuigg. Porta needs two things to make this a race. First, big turnout, the bigger the turnout the more Democratic this district becomes. Second, he needs to figure out what Republicans he can get to cross over against McQuigg. Libertarian Republicans may be the key for Porta to make this a race.

64th District
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Still waiting to see both reports.

68th District
Outlook: Likely Republican

Still waiting to see both reports.

84th District
Outlook: Likely Republican

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

IAQUINTO -------$18,868---------------$103,579------------------$72,807
CHRISTOPHER---$25,043--------------$100,127------------------$56,001

In this open seat race for Bob McDonnell's Delegate seat Democrat Christopher is hanging in there with money. But with McDonnell on the ballot, and this district's GOP leanings Iaquinto has a lot of advantages.

99th District
Outlook: Likely Republican (Pickup)

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

CRANDELL------$4,289----------------$9,808---------------------$5,096
WITTMAN------$11,762--------------$46,905------------------$36,729

In the race for Albert Pollard's Delegate seat the Republicans seem to be cruising to a pickup. Crandell's best shot may be them falling asleep.

52nd District Update (#1 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-17T14:30:00.000-04:00

Old Outlook: Toss Up
New Outlook: Leans Democratic

This is the first time we have ranked an incumbent as the underdog in their re-election. But every time we have made an excuse as to why this is still a tossup, Hilda Barg has cleared the bar- and easily.

Meanwhile the leaking Brinks truck that we described in the Werkheiser campaign has also been making deliveries to Jeff Frederick in this seat. To date, Frederick has spent almost $150,000 on this election and is left with only about $100,000 in the bank.

Frederick's spending habits have forced his campaign that has raised far more dollars to trail Barg in cash on hand by $41,000 (145-104).

The 52nd district is also home to the fewest swing voters of any competitive district in Virginia. This Warner/Kaine/Kerry area has been very consistent in giving Democrats a winning margin. Hilda Barg represents about 2/5 of the district on the Prince William Board and has never run below 60%.

Jeff Frederick is doing everything he can to hang on here and not become known as the accidental Delegate. On his website, you might be surprised to see who Frederick pictures himself with.

Tom Delay, who had a fundraiser for Frederick? Nope.

Conservative Prince William Delegates Marshall or Lingamfelter? Nope.

Why look- it's Congressman Tom Davis and Prince William Chairman Sean Connaughton!

Here's our question. Will Former Delegate Frederick be the conservative challenger to Sean Connaughton in 2007 for Chairman of Prince William? Frederick's politics are much better suited to all of Prince William then the district he currently represents. It's becoming very hard to see how he can pull this one out in the 52nd.

Article in Richmond Times-Dispatch

2005-07-17T06:00:00.000-04:00

This is on topic with our blog, and you may find it interesting.

37th District Update (#2 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-16T18:30:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Toss Up

In Central Fairfax the 37th district held by J. Chapman Petersen has been the most wide open of any race in the state. Emerging from contested primaries were David Bulova, son of Fairfax County Supervisor Sharon Bulova and John Mason, the former Mayor of Fairfax City.

Recent finance reports suggest a slow start from the June primaries with both candidates only having about $10,000 on hand as of June 30th.

In 1997 this district gave Jack Rust his first full term by an identical percentage to the statewide Gilmore victory. In 2001 it gave J. Chapman Petersen a victory by an identical percentage to the statewide Warner victory. If that trend continues John Mason has the early edge here, which is why we give Mason the top line on the right side of the page.

At the start of this race, we told you this district had more questions than any other which made it difficult to figure out. Here's what the questions were, and the answers we have 3 months later.

#1- Will the Democratic Nominee have popular Delegate Petersen on the ballot with them in November (unlikely, but a potential boost to the Democratic Nominee).

Nope. Advantage Mason.

#2- Will Fairfax City continue it's tradition of crushing Democratic nominees from outside the City, when their opponent is from the City? Under that scenario the string of losses for Democrats inside the City is long and unbroken.. from Emilie Miller in 3 Senate elections in 83, 87, and 91, Sally Ormsby in 87 and 89 for Delegate, Les Schoene in 97 for Delegate and Leslie Byrne in 99 for Senate. In all of these elections where the Republicans had a City candidate, and the Democrats did not, Republicans won the City by more than 2-1 (remarkable in an otherwise evenly divided area). Republicans used that margin to win every Delegate race above, but in the Senate contests where the City is only 10% of the district Democrats Miller and Byrne both won once.

Still Unknown. Toss Up.

#3- How will #1 effect #2? Would the City split it's votes between Petersen and Mason, or would Petersen have coattails? The likely answer is coattails, looking at the 2003 elections you can see Petersen's impact on the Senate race between Christian and Devolities. His coattails nearly provided the upset of the year. But again, that requires Petersen winning the primary statewide.

Doesn't matter now. Advantage Mason.

#4- Is there any difference between nominating Bulova or Oleszek for the Democrats? A major one, Bulova will be stronger in Fairfax County, especially Braddock District where his mother has served for over 20 years. Oleszek will be stronger in the City, since the County schools also run the schools in Fairfax City, and she is less antagonizing then the son of a County Supervisor.

Bulova carried both the City and County in the primary, although Oleszek did run better in the City. That is a boost for him in November. Advantage Bulova.

#5- Will Kaplan get out of Mason's way or will he force a primary?

He forced a primary. Mason would have a much stronger financial advantage if Kaplan had gotten out of the way. Advantage Bulova.

#6- Exactly how popular is Mason? He won big for 15 years as Mayor of Fairfax City, then was hammered in his 2003 re-election by almost a 2-1 margin. The issue was development, and if that was really the case, Mason should be ok in his comeback. If the issue was arrogance and the fact voters got tired of him, this will be uphill.

Still Unknown. Toss Up.

Of our six questions that would determine a winner two went to Mason, two went to Bulova and two are still unknown. That sounds like a toss up!

75th District (#3 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-14T17:30:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Democratic

The 75th District has the potential for the biggest upset of the year.

This rural district with a large minority population just outside Hampton Roads has been home to the longest serving Democrat in the House Paul Councill. Paul stepped down this year and we called this as a Safe Democratic seat for the winner of the June 14th primary.

The often complicated Democratic coalition got involved.

In the 75th district two things are true:

1) The margin that makes this a Democratic district are white Democratic votes

2) White Democrats are very much outnumbered by black Democrats in primaries.

As we have said before, in this part of Virginia, race absolutely matters. It's a fact we have to include in the analysis.

In the primary Roslyn Tyler used an excellent African American voter turnout operation to defeat Jerry Flowers by a couple of hundred votes. She will now face Carson Saunders in November. Flowers is bitter and complained to the press that he lost after running "the perfect campaign" (without a website or apparently understanding the demographics of his district). Finishing a distant third, but with more votes than the difference between Tyler and Flowers was Delegate Councill's son Jim Councill.

In the newspaper after the election it noted Flowers and Councill would have likely won if the other had dropped out because they were seeking the same voters (i.e. whites)

So what does the outgoing white Democratic incumbent say:

(From the Tidewater News- Thanks to Not Virgil Goode)

J. Paul Councill doubts this Democrat can win district

For the man who held this seat for 32 years, this political year is proving to be a great disappointment.

...

In a conversation with the Tidewater News Councill said the Republicans have a real chance to take this district in November- which in his experience is a total aberration.

...

"It's been a Democratic district, but I think this year may be different with the nominee we have."

"I think a lot of people are going to question the Democratic nominee. And I think Republicans will make a concerted effort to promote their candidate, and I think a lot of Democrats will support the Republican candidate."

...

"I don't believe she can successfully represent this district and I don't think she has enough support districtwide to adequately represent the district."

...

"This was a black and white race, pure and simple," Councill said. She preached to the blacks..."

...

"In addition to doubting Tyler's ability to become the elected Delegate, Councill said the loss of the seat to Republican Carson Saunders would prove an embarrassment to district Democrats.

"I think they are all going to have egg on their face because we could have put someone up there who would have been a viable representative. "

--------------------------

Tyler has an advantage here, but turnout could be a problem for her. George Bush got 43% here, so all Saunders needs to do is pull white Democrats and he will win. That of course is going to be tough- they are still Democrats for a reason. But this election could test that, and it is near the top of the list because of the explosive nature of the next few months. The RPV is already in the 75th with a truckload of salt to throw in every Democratic wound.

Democratic leaders in Richmond are very upset over this outcome, and not pleased at all that they will have to spend their dollars to defend a seat that should be an easy win.

Rules of the Site

2005-07-14T15:00:00.000-04:00

Over the last few days, we have had one interested blogger send almost 200 comments to the site about the identity of NLS. To be fair, we never published rules to our site, so here they are.

#1- Keep comments on topic to the post. For example, it is fine to talk about the identity of NLS when we post a discussion board on that. It is not ok to take over the discussions on individual races on that topic.

#2- Multiple comments are fine, but please give other people a chance to talk. It is not ok to make ten comments in a row (within 3 minutes of each other) pretending to be different people- all agreeing with your original post.

#3- Try not to attack people personally. As we said in the Washington Post, we are careful and take responsibility for what goes into our posts on the main page. If you slander someone as an anonymous comment and that person wants to sue you, blogger will give them your IP address and you will not be anonymous. Please keep that in mind.

#4- If someone is talking about you, and you are not a public figure (i.e. the conversation on Lowell Fulk's manager) we will take the comments down if you request it. To have that done just email notlarrysabato@hotmail.com

About 5 p.m. we will have our post for #3 on the Dirty Dozen posted, and the comments are open again now. We have another blog set up that will trace IPs and moderate comments that we will transfer to later today if we are spammed again.

Thank You.

Who is NLS?

2005-07-13T09:45:00.000-04:00

I had to delete almost 50 comments yesterday from discussions guessing who NLS was. What we are irritated about is all the comments were going into the discussions on various races, basically killing those discussions.

So now the people guessing (and it is only a couple, they would post the same name multiple times) have an open thread.

Top guess yesterday was Jay Hughes, 2nd biggest guess was Ben Tribbet.

If anyone gets all 4 of us, we will reveal ourselves.

UPDATE: 82 Messages this morning in 1 hour from the same person, trying to take over every discussion on the front page. The site is now restricted to registered users until we can get control over the situation. We will not allow ONE person to destroy the site.

2nd Update: Yesterday's final tally was 139 messages from one person. Today's was 37 before we shut down the comments again. We left up the crux of what they were saying so you can see it yourself.

87th District (#4 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-12T14:00:00.000-04:00

Old Outlook: Toss Up
New Outlook: Leans Democratic

After a great special election in December which Paula Miller won by less than 100 votes over Michael Ball, this race has slowly climbed down our top races list. Without both parties running the campaigns, both Miller and Ball are off to very slow starts. Very slow fundraising for both of them through June 1st. Sources in Norfolk in both parties are complaining about their candidate not really wanting it. It all seems to be a factor of fatigue from the crazy election here in December.

Slow starts benefit incumbents. If Ball could get going this could be a great race, especially with the GOP advantage in Hampton Roads with Bob McDonnell on the ticket. We'll see on the July 15th finance report if Ball is really serious about trying to win this seat back for the GOP.

Virginia's New Star

2005-07-12T00:00:00.000-04:00

Article is under news at http://www.c-ville.com/

Who’s Virginia’s newest political star?

It’s Not Larry Sabato…
Political junkies all over the country know Larry Sabato. For reporters at major newspapers from The Los Angeles Times to The Washington Post, the mustachioed director of UVA’s Center for Politics is the go-to guy for political analysis.
Sabato is particularly famous for offering a horserace-style analysis of politics couched in quotes like the one he recently gave to the Denver Post. In a July 7 article about the upcoming battle between Republicans and Democrats over the Supreme Court nominee, Sabato said: “It’s hard to imagine that this one won’t be nasty.” No shit.
The combination of Sabato’s ubiquity and occasional innoc-uousness has prompted a back-lash from a quartet of smartasses in the blog-osphere. Two Democrats and two Repub-licans writing under the name “Not Larry Sabato” have created a blog (http://virginia 2005.blogspot.com) to analyze Virginia politics from a non-Sabato point of view.
“It was kind of a joke about how everywhere you go, you see him quoted,” says one of the bloggers, who names himself only as Not Larry Sabato. “We thought that if our blog became big enough, newspapers would quote us as a counter to him. Like, ‘Larry Sabato said this, but Not Larry Sabato said this.’”
Besides the fact that they are not Larry Sabato, one thing that’s clear about the bloggers is that they are plugged into both the Virginia Democratic and Republican parties. That’s the reason the bloggers refuse to announce their identities.
“There’s no point in doing this if you’re not anonymous,” says Not Sabato. “We’re putting out information we get in secret meetings…if people knew who we were, we wouldn’t get invited.”
Not Larry Sabato says he and his fellow not-Sabatos started the blog to shed some light on how political campaigns actually work behind the theater of press releases and photo ops.
“Most incumbents in this state are out of control,” he says. “They don’t care about the impact of anything they do. There’s extraordinary arrogance on both sides. They want to do their stuff in the dark, and they don’t like people discussing anything about them.”
The bigwigs have apparently been reading the Not Larrys. On a recent post, one Not Larry says that when the blog mocked a photo of Democrat Brian Moran posted on the delegate’s official website, the picture was replaced within two days. When the blog chastised Republican Jim Hyland for negative attacks, the candidate’s message turned much more positive. “We’re getting reports back from the meetings… we hear they’re all complaining about the blog,” Not Sabato says.
One person who isn’t complaining is Larry Sabato. “I thought it was hilarious,” says Sabato, who recently posted a comment on the blog saying so. “I don’t think they meant it as a dig. I’m at the age where in order to survive, I frequently interpret insults as backhanded compliments.”—John Borgmeyer

Northern Virginia Daily Article

2005-07-11T13:00:00.000-04:00

Good article about blogs in the NV Daily. Comments from us in the comment section.

-------------------------------------------------------

Blogs, a new craze on Internet, give people chance to vent; A1
By Garren Shipley (Daily Staff Writer)

They’re at times informative, scurrilous, insightful, self-referential and thoughtful. Often critical of the press, they report on politics and current events like media outlets. They’re liberal, conservative, libertarian and everything else.

The authors all have one thing in common, though: They’re having a great time.

Blogs, aka Web logs, are one of the new crazes on the Internet, giving anyone with a modem a chance to plug in and tell the entire world what they think. Some are simply streams of consciousness made public.

But dozens of the sites devote their space to Virginia politics. One of the more thorough — and controversial — sites out there is run by “Not Larry Sabato,” a not-so-veiled reference to the University of Virginia’s leading political analyst.

“Not Larry Sabato” is actually a group of four Virginia campaign veterans, according to one of the bloggers who spoke with the Daily recently.

“We’ve all worked within the parties,” he said. Two Democrats and two Republicans, the four are friends and have actually worked on opposing campaigns. Now, they work together to prognosticate and report on the 100 races for the House of Delegates.

Why blog? It’s fun to poke the status quo in the eye.

“We’re shaking up the establishment a little bit,” said the anonymous blogger.

Political fun is the reason three-year blogging veteran Norman Leahy, former executive director of U.S. Term Limits, keeps posting on his “One Man’s Trash” site day after day.

“My blog is little more than an electronic version of an 18th century broadside. It’s meant to rile, it’s meant to challenge and, if I’m very lucky, someone just might take a piece of it to heart and act.”

Leahy watches Virginia politics, and has devoted considerable space to the campaign of state Sen. H. Russell Potts, Jr., R-Winchester, the independent candidate on the Nov. 8 gubernatorial ballot.“

Above all, it’s fun. It’s interesting, too,” Leahy said. “The moment blogging ceases to be either of those things, I’ll give it up.”

It is fun, said former lobbyist, journalist and activist Bob Griendling, whose Commonwealth Commonsense blog tacks left where Leahy tacks right.

“I like the idea of getting ideas out in the public,” said Griendling, who added that he dislikes the gossipy, anonymous nature of some blogs, including the efforts of NLS.

“I come at it from a journalist’s background. I’m opinionated certainly, but I would feel terrible if I put something out there that was false that hurt somebody’s reputation,” he said.

While he has no problem lighting up politicians based on their positions, he said, personal stuff is out of bounds.“

Sometimes we joke around [like calling Creigh Deeds a ‘Charlottesville liberal’],” added anonymous bloggers Old Zach and Addison from “Sic Semper Tyrannis.”

“But for the most part we try to focus on the issues. ‘Sic Semper’ is our sounding board, and I think people will read us as long as we have something to say — be it politics, sports or entertainment.”

The NLS site is “gossipy, but not gossip,” one of the four anonymous NLS bloggers said. At the same time, it doesn’t adhere to the same standards of review that mainstream publications follow, partly because it’s a staff of four.

But the collective “Not Larrys” patrol their blog’s comment section for anything that might be out of line and pull the patently false or scurrilous entries.

Just how many people read the blogs isn’t clear.

The “Not Larry Sabato” team doesn’t have a hit counter, so they have no way of tracking how many people actually read their posts. Hit counters can betray IP addresses, and that could lead to their collective unmasking.

“We can’t do the blog effectively if we reveal our identities,” he said, but noted that NLS gets “four to five times the comments” of other Old Dominion blogs.

“I’ve been in [public relations] long enough to know not to believe your own press,” Griendling said.

The NLS bloggers think they are reaching voters, though, as evidenced by what they say was a swarm of e-mail around the June 14 primary.

“We were just getting bombed by real voters, e-mailing us asking questions,” the NLS blogger said. Voters researching candidates wanted to know more about their potential choices. “We didn’t anticipate that when it started,” he said.

As of Nov. 9, Not Larry Sabato will go quiet — partly because the fun stuff will be over, but mainly because it’s a lot harder to get the good dirt when the General Assembly is in session.

“In session, the meetings are much smaller,” he said. That makes it easier to get caught.

Sic Semper’s future depends on football. “The first full season of college football will be a challenge, and we might not be working on the same blog by the end of it,” the two bloggers wrote.

Leahy said he’ll keep right on plugging even after the election is over. The 2006 General Assembly will be a good one for political junkies.

“It could be an explosive session, particularly if there’s a move to raise taxes to pay for more transportation projects,” he said. “There will also be some pressure on the [legislature] to get involved in the property tax issue, and I look for a bit of a tussle over ideas like a Taxpayers Bill of Rights.”

And then there’s the 2006 congressional midterms. “Those races will only add to the fun,” Leahy said.

Contact Garren Shipley at gshipley@nvdaily.com

26th District Update (#5 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-11T12:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Republican

The 26th district battle for the open seat of Glenn Weatherholtz is still heating up. Some Republicans have begun mumbling to us that Matt Lohr might be their worst candidate in the state. We disagree with that assessment. Matt's biggest problem is everytime he is quoted he is matched up against Lowell Fulk who might be the best Democratic candidate for Delegate in Virginia. So that is making Lohr come across as a lot more green then he really is.

The biggest problem Fulk has here is this might be the most Republican House district out of all 100 in Virginia. He's going to have to pull massive numbers of Kilgore votes to his side, and that will be very tough in the Valley.

But Fulk's 2003 campaign says a lot about his chances. Turnout in 2003 was a remarkable 92% of the turnout that came in the 2001 Governor's election. The difference was only about 1,000 votes. Assuming this years turnout is similar to 2001, Fulk won't need a lot of help turning out more voters. He just needs to pull about 500 additional from his 2003 campaign against the incumbent.

Given how well the campaign has gone for Fulk, we may make this a tossup after the July 15th financial reports.

Lohr will need to come up with a better attack line then his recent press conference where he critiqued Fulk for only bringing "common sense solutions" to the table.

Finally, a few weeks ago we promised you a scandal in the 26th that we would break soon. We were promised a copy of a motivational speech Matt Lohr gave where "he openly mocked JMU". To date, the tape has been "in the mail" for almost a month. Unless we hear otherwise, it's fair to assume no such tape exists. If it does show up, we will bring it to you, but for now we find Matt Lohr not guilty on the charge of JMU bashing.

Celebrity Contest Down

2005-07-10T22:00:00.000-04:00

We got some complaints on the celebrity naming contest on here for candidates so we took it down. It's a little disappointing because we had some good ones ready for the statewide candidates, but we don't want to offend anyone. Sorry if we did.

Any other ideas how to make it to Labor Day awake?

Abortion and the Top 5

2005-07-10T06:00:00.000-04:00

The Washington Post has a new article out this morning, about abortion and how it will effect the Governor's race. As you may remember, we discussed here last week how it could impact the House of Delegates election this year.

The Top 5 of the "Dirty Dozen" is coming soon under this new schedule:

#5- 26th District- Tomorrow
#4- 87th District- Tomorrow
#3- 75th District- Tuesday
#2- 37th District- Tuesday
#1- 52nd District- Wednesday

67th District Update (#6 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-09T16:00:00.000-04:00

Old Outlook: Likely Republican
New Outlook: Leans Republican

Sometimes it seems like the Republicans are determined to get a Democrat elected in Western Fairfax.

In this district which has not gone for a statewide Democrat in decades, the GOP nearly gave it away in the 1990's. With his legal problems former Delegate Roger McClure just barely hung on in both of his challenges by Jim Mitchell winning his last race in 1999 by just 230 votes.

When McClure stepped down School Board member Gary Reese won his seat with over 60% of the vote and this seemed to be back in the safe GOP column.

But this year Republican primary voters routed Reese out of office for 26 year old substitute teacher Chris Craddock. Democrats responded by bringing back 1980's School Board member Chuck Caputo to serve as their nominee.

This race is all the buzz of Richmond insiders who are putting their money on a Caputo victory. While we see this race as very competitive, we are far from ready to call this for Caputo.

Even if Gary Reese endorses Caputo, this district is solid Republican. For the Democrats to win hundreds of people voting for Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell will have to decide that Chris Craddock is too conservative for them. We just don't see any difference between Craddock and his statewide ticket.

While this race will be hotly contested, and closely followed this race reminds us of the Cuccinelli-Belter race in 2002. A young very conservative Republican against an older Democratic moderate from the neighborhood for decades. The Richmond establishment knew Belter would win big. In the 67th, Cuccinelli won every precinct and of course went on to win big.
What can Caputo do to win this election? He has a shot if he can run without sounding like a Democrat. The next race we are covering, the 26th district should serve as a good example of what he has to do. We'll follow this one closely to see if Caputo is really pulling enough GOP votes to pull this off.

41st District (#7 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-09T12:45:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Toss Up

While we are keeping this race as a tossup, we are moving Dave Marsden to the top line on the right side of our page. We always put the slight favorite in tossups on top. The finance reports due on July 15th are the reason Marsden has taken the advantage here. Michael Golden has raised slightly less than Marsden as of the last report, but since then Marsden had a major fundraiser with Governor Warner and Golden had to spend a lot of his money on the June 14th Republican primary. The cash on hand advantage for Marsden should be huge here, and Golden has to begin catching up in money if he wants to win this election.

In fact, we were all ready to make this race a "Leans Democratic" until we got an email tip last week.

You may remember when we told you to visit Dave Marsden's website to see how local Democratic icon and former 41st District candidate Cathy Belter was still refusing to endorse him. The next week when Cathy showed up on the site, we did another post pointing out that Marsden seemed to finally be uniting the Democrats behind him.

Our email tip suggested we visit the site once again.

Indeed, the Belter endorsement is gone, along with the endorsement of Janet Oleszek from the Fairfax School Board. After we checked with some sources we learned that neither of them ever endorsed Marsden. It's unclear exactly what is happening here other then the Democrats have still not united behind their candidate. Until that happens we can not even consider making this a "Leans Democratic".

6th District (#8 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-08T14:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Democratic

In the 6th district, Benny Keister is seeking his fourth term in the House. Keister was the only Democratic pickup in 1999, winning an open GOP seat in a landslide. However since the redistricting Keister's numbers have fallen and in 2003 he was re-elected by just 56 votes.

Republicans have recruited Wythe County Board Chair Anne Crockett-Stark to challenge Keister this year.

But unseating Keister may be a little tougher than just winning 57 more votes.

First, this is a district Mark Warner carried, and Tim Kaine was also able to win it by 17 votes. While this district takes in parts of five counties the population is distributed as follows:

Pulaski County 37%
Giles County 25%
Wythe County 19%
Tazewell County 10%
Bland County 9%

Keister's near defeat was caused by his underperformance in Pulaski County, which is also his home base. Much of the credit for that lies with the strong campaign of the 2003 GOP nominee. Crockett-Stark will have a tough time holding that Pulaski overperformance, which will offset her expected gains in Wythe.

For Crockett-Stark to emerge as the winner here, she will have to run a strong districtwide campaign, and not assume to have the 2003 GOP numbers in her pocket at all. To do that she will have to have a strong fundraising operation, so we should know more about her chances on July 15th at the next financial filing.

If she can do that, the strong Jerry Kilgore numbers in this district could help put her over the top.

The other factor at play here is Crockett-Stark is a woman. The nearest woman legislator is over 100 miles away in Lynchburg. While she has broken the glass ceiling in Wythe, it will be interesting to see if this district is ready for a woman as its Delegate.

42nd District (#9 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-07T14:45:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Republican

Greg Werkheiser has got to be frustrated. Here's a young, bright, articulate young candidate who between his PAC and campaign has raised $233,000, yet only $102,000 is left and the campaign has barely begun. Can you imagine a Brinks truck that is supposed to deliver a quarter of a million dollars and shows up with 100 thousand instead?

Meanwhile the massive amounts of money Werkheiser has raised woke up incumbent Dave Albo from his 15 year slumber. Albo's fundraising has now caught fire and his Brinks truck doesn't have a hole in it, leaving him with $175,000 left.

If Werkheiser wants to make this race what it could be, which is the best in the Commonwealth, he has to start saving his money. In many ways this is what makes our system so perfect. Candidates who overspend early and don't manage their campaign dollars tend to lose, and then not be responsible for spending billions of tax dollars. That's a good thing.

But Werkheiser can be the exception to this rule. His early start leaves the door open for him to make the changes he needs to make a move. On his "Blueprint" page he's off to a good start by focusing on local rather than regional transportation issues- however to see that you have to go through a two page pre-amble. Once again, he's on the right track- almost.

The July 15th Finance Report here will be very interesting.

35th District Update (#10 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-07T09:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Democratic

Now that the nastiest GOP primary in the state is over with, Republican Jim Hyland has begun to bring the party together. Republicans see opportunity here in the district that has been most likely to toss incumbents out on their ass. Since 1990 it has had Delegates McDermott, Fisher, Lovelace, Devolities and Shannon with Senators Miller, Woods, Byrne, and Devolities.

Right now the best thing going for incumbent Steve Shannon is his amazing fundraising. Steve has clearly decided the way to get re-elected is to sit on a pile of money and drown out his opponent in October. It worked for him in 2003 in the open seat race.

If Hyland's fundraising is strong on the July 15th report we may move this one back up the "Dirty Dozen". If Hyland gets money, this one could get ugly fast.

10th District Update (#11 on the dirty dozen)

2005-07-06T16:30:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Democratic

The 10th district which runs near the North Carolina border is represented by Ward Armstrong. The district lines are a little shady, during the last redistricting the main "community of interest" in creating this district was drawing Barnie Day and Ward Armstrong into the same seat.

Having finished off Barnie, now the GOP is eyeing Ward. Because of the lack of a single issue or interest in this district the areas voted widely different in 2001. Ward is very strong in Henry and Martinsville and very weak in Carroll County. For the GOP to oust Ward they need to win a good margin in Patrick County (home of Barnie Day). Demographically this is more possible with the recent GOP movement in the area, George W. Bush won Patrick by more than a 2-1 margin.
With that in mind the GOP recruited Patrick County Supervisor David Young to challenge Armstrong. He's the right fit for pulling together a winning coalition here- if he has a strong campaign. As he just began the campaign a few weeks ago we will get our first idea of how strong he is with the July 15th campaign finance reports.

This race could move up the "Dirty Dozen" quickly if Young can get moving.

It's also important to note that off all the districts still on the competitive board on the right, Tim Kaine had a greater falloff from Mark Warner here than in any other district, a 6.2% difference. Tim Kaine will run worse in this seat then he does statewide. If he continues to trail by 10 points around the state he could be taking Ward with him when he leaves the Capitol in Janurary. On the other hand, if Tim's numbers improve statewide and he can break even here, Ward will be fine.

39th District Update (#12 on the Dirty Dozen)

2005-07-06T13:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Likely Democratic

The 39th District in eastern Fairfax County may be host to the big surprise of the year.

Incumbent Vivian Watts held this district for a few years in the 1980's before giving it up to be in Governor Bailies cabinet. In 1995 she won it back by 300 votes in an open seat race over Tim Hugo, now Delegate from the 40th District.

In 1999 and 2001 she had a tough challenger in local attorney Chris Craig. Vivian won both by about 10 points, not a landslide, but a solid victory.

Now she faces a challenge from Michael Meunier.

Mike has been running a stealth campaign, showing up in random places like this one.

But his Egyptian connections are helping him fundraise outside of the "same old" donors. So far (through June 1st) he has outraised Watts more than 3-1, and has not overspent like some challengers giving him an equally impressive 3-1 advantage in cash on hand.

Vivian is a strong incumbent, and probably the smartest policy wonk in the Democratic Caucus. She is strong in her district. But this email was the difference to us putting this seat on the "Dirty Dozen" list.

Not Larry Sabato- I am a Fairfax County Democrat. Last week when I went to our local Democratic Committee meeting we had to decide how to divvy up about $6,000. In our area we had four candidates, Vivian Watts, Dave Marsden, David Bulova, and Greg Werkheiser.

Vivian's staff was there and demanded at least $1,000 for Vivian over all these other challengers than need help. I was surprised because I thought she was safe. But they made a very convincing case that she has a strong opponent and that without the $1,000 they might lose the election. The committee voted to give it to Vivian so she would go back to Richmond.

You may want to keep an eye on this race. Also, if you are interested the rest of the money was split with $1,000 to Marsden, $1,000 to Werkheiser and $3,000 to Bulova. Not sure if that means anything or not.
---------------------
One thing that everyone knows in Virginia politics is Vivian Watts is a class act. She would not play "reverse Robin Hood" by taking from the challengers unless she was in serious trouble.

Since we now know she is, this race makes it debut on the "Dirty Dozen" at #12.

Column by NOT Lindsey Reynolds

2005-07-05T19:00:00.000-04:00

By NOT Lindsey Reynolds

The DPVA website of today is, indeed, a thing of beauty. But it doesn't seem to be there for ALL Democrats -- only a few.

Witness -- three weeks after the Primaries -- that there is STILL no information about the campaigns for House of Delegates. No contact info for the candidates' websites. Not even a list of their names.

I have long suspected -- known, actually -- that the DPVA is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a small group of self-interested pols. Certainly, there seems to be very little concern for regaining a House majority. Most certainly not if that means nominating candidates who aren't hand-picked by the DINO's in the inner circle.

But not to even LIST our candidates. Inexcusable.

We might as well be living in the days of Tammany Hall...

Hitting the MSM

2005-07-05T00:00:00.000-04:00

Great Article on Blogging in this morning's Washington Post. Front page, Metro!

We do want to clarify one quote in the article. When we said "If someone makes a defamatory statement, that has nothing to do with us." that is referring to the comments section on the blog. I'm not sure if the reporter understood the difference in that.

Our point on that was the comments section on here is not our responsibility. Obviously anyone can post anytime, and we don't get to approve those comments in advance.

That having been said, anytime we have gotten a request to delete comments from a subject of them we have done so, and will continue to do so.

Yes there is a responsibility in running a blog like this.

Now, for the comment you have all been waiting for:

Organizers of the Not Larry Sabato blog contend that postings about candidates are fair, especially because they are public figures. Speaking only on condition of anonymity, one of them said the blog criticizes politicians on both sides of the aisle.

"We are equal opportunity bashers here," the Not Larry Sabato blogger said in a phone interview. The group, he added, is made up of two Democrats and two Republicans from across the state.

We'll give you another hint tomorrow of home county for each of our bloggers. You already know one of us lives in Chesterfield County.

And as a special contest, starting tomorrow...after we reveal each of our four bloggers home county and party anyone who can get all four right in a guess wins the biggest prize in blogging history. .. when the correct answer is given we announce our identities!

Chill out on the guessing for a day so we can open a comment section just for that.

Special shout out to John Behan who also got a mention in the article.

This comments section is for your reaction to the article. Any new readers from it?

The Dirty Dozen

2005-07-04T23:59:00.000-04:00

Earlier in the campaign we twice did lists of the hottest House of Delegates races at that time.

The first one was in April, the second one was in May. We skipped June because of the primaries, so now it's time for the next top ten list!

But now, it is expanded to the "Dirty Dozen"!

#12- 39th District-
incumbent Vivian Watts vs. challenger Michael Meuneir
This race was unranked both in April and May.
Detailed Update coming Wednesday, 7/6/2005

#11- 10th District-
incumbent Ward Armstrong vs. challenger David Young
This race was unranked both in April and May.
Detailed Update coming Wednesday, 7/6/2005

#10- 35th District-
incumbent Steve Shannon vs. challenger Jim Hyland
This race was ranked #5 in April and #6 in May.
Detailed Update coming Thursday, 7/7/2005

#9- 42nd District-
incumbent Dave Albo vs. challenger Greg Werkheiser
This race was ranked #8 in April and #7 in May.
Detailed Update coming Thursday, 7/7/2005

#8- 6th District-
incumbent Benny Keister vs. challenger Anne Crockett-Stark
This race was unranked in April and ranked #8 in May.
Detailed Update coming Friday, 7/8/2005

#7- 41st District-
Open GOP seat. Michael Golden vs. David Marsden
This race was ranked #4 in April and ranked #5 in May.
Detailed Update coming Friday, 7/8/2005

#6- 67th District-
Open GOP seat. Chris Craddock vs. Chuck Caputo
This race was ranked #7 in April and unranked in May.
Detailed Update coming Saturday, 7/9/2005

#5- 26th District-
Open GOP seat. Matt Lohr vs. Lowell Fulk
This race was ranked #6 in April and ranked #4 in May.
Detailed Update coming Saturday, 7/9/2005

#4- 87th District-
incumbent Paula Miller vs. challenger Michael Ball
This race was ranked #1 in April and ranked #2 in May.
Detailed Update coming Sunday, 7/10/2005

#3- 75th District-
Open DEM seat. Roslyn Tyler vs. Carson Saunders
This race was unranked both in April and May.
Detailed Update coming Sunday, 7/10/2005

#2- 37th District-
Open DEM seat. David Bulova vs. John Mason
This race was ranked #3 in April and ranked #1 in May.
Detailed Update coming Monday, 7/11/2005

#1- 52nd District-
incumbent Jeff Frederick vs. challenger Hilda Barg
This race was ranked #2 in April and ranked #3 in May.
Detailed Update coming Monday, 7/11/2005

July 4th Open Thread

2005-07-04T15:00:00.000-04:00

By request...

7th District

2005-07-04T06:10:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Safe Republican

On paper this should be the closest race in Southwest Virginia. But Republicans have a very strong incumbent in Dave Nutter, who unseated Delegate Jim Shuler in 2001. When Creigh Deeds moved up to the State Senate, Shuler moved and took that seat to return to Richmond.

This year the Democrats have nominated Barbara Chrisley, who was the GOP candidate in the 6th District against Benny Keister in 1999. That seat had been GOP held, and in the open seat race Chrisley lost it by almost 20 points. If you are confused- call Speaker Howell- this is all messed up from the last redistricting, nobody is in the right districts anymore!

While on it's face this district could be home to a great battle it's not going to happen this year. Instead Babs is going to find out that it wasn't party affiliation that caused the voters to reject her in 1999.

With 81 seats now projected the House is:
50 GOP
29 Dem
2 Ind

2nd District

2005-07-04T06:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Safe Democratic

This district was drawn to be as Democratic as the 1st district is Republican. John Behan has been pointing out an error incumbent Bud Phillips made during the last General Assembly.

If this district wasn't so Democratic it might hurt Bud. Even Tim Kaine got almost 60% here. We are ready to call Bud as the winner.

With 80 seats now projected the House is:

49 GOP
29 Dem
2 Ind

26th District- "Ouch!"

2005-07-03T00:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Republican

Just picked this up off the Lowell Fulk website.

Letter of the Day 6/30/05

Lohr Should Debate

OK, I ask my Republican neighbors and friends to help me understand. Matt Lohr, professional speaker, refuses to debate Lowell Fulk, professional farmer.

Is it the issues that Matt doesn’t feel deserve debating: education, public safety, economic development and preservation, agriculture, or elder care (topics proposed by Mr. Fulk)?

Or, possibly, does Mr. Lohr not have the time in his busy travel schedule to fit in a few debates for the delegate seat he seeks?

A Republican, a professional speaker, refuses to debate a Democratic farmer in a Republican stronghold. Help me understand, I honestly don’t get it

Don Roderick
Harrisonburg

We have said it before, and will say it again. Lowell Fulk is the best Democratic candidate in the state. The only reason he isn't crushing Republican Matt Lohr is the 2-1 Republican edge in this district. Lohr is favored if he can keep the status quo.

But to keep the status quo he can't let Fulk get shots in like this. Matt Lohr should agree to any and all debates with Lowell Fulk, which will be attended by only a few people who have already decided how to vote.

If Lohr's team was at all bright they would realize that they want to spend as much time as possible in empty rooms debating issues with Lowell Fulk, rather than having Fulk out in front of voters.

Depending on the finance reports on July 15th we may make this a tossup.

Impact of our Blog

2005-07-02T17:00:00.000-04:00

Later this month we will celebrate our 3 month blog-iversery. Thanks to everyone who reads or contributes to this blog. It's clear we are not only covering this years election, but also having an impact.

In the next few days you will be able to know more about the writers here, as we begin to unveil our identity in the Washington Post.

Many of the candidates running and their staffs tune in here also. Often times when we bash one of them the issue is corrected almost immediately. For example, when our picture of Brian Moran went up from his site last week, within 2 days it was replaced with a much more flattering one. When we pointed out Dave Marsden had his endorsements listed with the wrong offices, the page was down the next morning, and up corrected soon thereafter. When we pointed our Jim Hyland's attacks were very strong for this point in the campaign, they were replaced with a much more positive message. Hey- we should be getting paid for this!

Also after having his pants attacked David Bulova has stopped wearing any.... (just kidding!)

We also brought you Gary Reese's conceding the primary two days in advance.

Thank You to everyone who has helped out with this project!

First Race, Now Abortion

2005-07-01T12:00:00.000-04:00

Today must be hot button day.

Everyone we are sure is watching the impending retirement of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. As the swing vote on the abortion issue the justice to replace her could be the deciding vote to overturn Roe v. Wade.

For many bloggers too young to remember it's time for a history lesson on Roe v. Wade.

Roe versus Wade

The Roe versus Wade decision was NOT to legalize abortion. This decision was based on equal access. Prior to Roe versus Wade every state had different laws on whether abortion would be legal. Roe v. Wade forced every state have the same basic law that abortion was legal, with regulation left to each state.

If Roe versus Wade is overturned abortion then would become a state by state issue. That means this Supreme Court nomination battle could have a major impact on the Virginia elections this year. If overturned the next General Assembly and Governor will likely determine if abortion stays legal.

According to yesterday's SurveyUSA poll in Virginia
54% Pro-Choice
41% Pro-Life

Since the 1989 Governor's election when Doug Wilder used his Pro-Choice position to win, Pro-Life candidates have had tremendous success. Much of this is based on Pro-Life voters voting solely on this issue, while Pro-Choice voters were choosing other issues to vote on.

Now it's back on the radar screen.

Depending on the President's nominee abortion will become a major issue and quickly. This could be a particularly big break for Democrats in Northern Virginia. Candidates still on the competitive board who would benefit are: David Poisson, Steve Shannon, David Bulova, Vivian Watts, Dave Marsden, Greg Werkheiser, Earnie Porta, Hilda Barg and Chuck Caputo.

This national issue may have a major impact on this election.

Developing...

75th District

2005-07-01T09:00:00.000-04:00

Old Outlook: Safe Democratic
New Outlook: Leans Democratic

Thank You to new blogger Not Virgil Goode who told us about this yesterday and then backed it up in an email to me last night. We don't know how to attach a PDF to this site or we would happy to share with all of you.

This Safe Democratic Seat is in serious trouble.

We had called this Safe Democratic to the winner of the June 14th primary. But on primary night we held back on calling it to the winner Roslyn Tyler. Something was brewing here.

Tyler raised only $6,000 in her winning primary campaign and will need more to appeal to a "broader base" in November.

Also from this article we got from "Not Virgil", outgoing Democratic Delegate Paul Councill basically encouraged people to cross over in November to oppose Tyler.

We also need to see more about GOP nominee Carson Saunders.

In polite company in Virginia you can't mention the real reason there is tension here. It's race. We're working on another column for later today or this weekend going into the politics of race in Virginia and how that is impacting the elections.

We are sure this article will upset some people since this isn't supposed to be discussed. Too bad. It's time to address the issue that has the biggest impact across the state in almost every election.

One NOT gone, Two NOTS to come?

2005-06-30T19:30:00.000-04:00

Our friend Not Robert Roberts seems to have fallen off the edge of the blogosphere. Where are you NRR?

We are very sad about this development. :(

But this is your chance to be an anonymous web star!

As we see it both political parties in Virginia have two factions. "Conservatives" and "Moderates" among Republicans. Or to be less flattering, one group that Barnie Day would call "Flat Earthers" and another Phil Rodokanakis would call "RINOs". Among Democrats it's the younger "Liberal" group and the older more "Moderate" group. With Democrats it's much more regionally based with the "Liberals" in cities and the Moderate establishment elsewhere.

Well, the Moderate GOP faction has been well represented by "Not Jim Gilmore" and the younger "Liberal" wing of the Democrats has been well represented by "Not Brian Moran".

We need a blogger to fill the job of blogging for the "Conservative" wing of the GOP and the "Establishment" wing of the Democrats.

You may take whatever name you choose, but here are our two suggestions.

"Conservative GOP"- "Not John Chichester".

Chichester would be an obvious choice for the conservatives who feel that "RINO's" are no better than having a Democrat elected.

"Establishment Dems- "Not Ken Cuccinelli"

Often this wing of the party defines itself by what it is not, rather than what it is. What better name than "Not Ken Cuccinelli"!

Anyone interested? Please email me at notlarrysabato@hotmail.com

More from NOT Jim Gilmore?

2005-06-30T00:00:00.000-04:00

This thread is for discussion of Not Jim Gilmore. Do you want to hear more from NJG on candidates and how that may play into future votes?

Let us hear from you.

NOT Brian Moran

2005-06-29T18:30:00.000-04:00

Do you, the readers of this site, wish to read a more frequent column by NOT Brian Moran? Let us know here.

Open Thread

2005-06-29T13:30:00.000-04:00

Throw out your comments on whatever is on your mind today!

Lt. Gov Race Update

2005-06-28T11:45:00.000-04:00

Bolling's former associates at his insurance company will find out if they get jail time today in Richmond.....

Why is this not in the news yet?

Developing...

UPDATE

AP is up with a story. The President and Exec. VP are going to prison. No charges have been brought against other VP's including Bill Bolling. Of course all the charges at Enron didn't hit together either.

Developing...

Who Are We?

2005-06-28T07:00:00.000-04:00

Poll Results from NRR's blog:

"Mike Shear": 23%
"A journalist": 20%
"Who Cares": 18%
"Ben Tribett": 15%
"A Democrat": 14%
"A Republican": 8%
"Don": 2%

Looks like a split decision there! Almost half believe we are a journalist, with over half of that group pointing the finger at Washington Post reporter Michael Shear. That's assuming of course, that you consider Mike a journalist.

The Blue Dog jumps on the bandwagon of speculation over at Bacon's Rebellion.

One comment to the Blue Dog. Senator Cuccinelli posted here last week that he was planning to blog. He decided to drop out. You can look through our messages to see his very clear message from him with an intention at that time. On the Englin's, as we said before, we got my wires crossed between the Del-Elect and his wife, and I apologize for that.

Meanwhile Norm leads the guessing game on who Not Jim Gilmore is.

No Comments from us. The list is only 17 possible, so we won't narrow.

Finally links to our fellow "Nots".

Not Bob Roberts has become one of our favorite blogs, and seems to have good analysis.

Not Mark Rozell's blog will be a better read when he stops taking pot shots at us all the time.

How dumb is Chris Craddock?

2005-06-27T21:45:00.000-04:00

Email just in:

I got a call from Craddock tonight...unfortunately for him, I'm not in the district.

Click above to read about it first hand.

35th District Update

2005-06-27T14:45:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Leans Democratic

Incumbent Steve Shannon got a break when the GOP primary turned into something out of the Jerry Springer Show.

Emerging as a surprise to some analysts (not us, we were perfect) was Jim Hyland, a former aide to John Warner.

Hyland ran an almost flawless primary campaign giving himself a win despite being outspent 4-1. He obviously learned a lot from his 2003 Board of Supervisors campaign when he was spanked. Hyland emerged from that embarrassment as a much stronger candidate this year.

Our GOP source in Vienna tells us the Hyland general election kickoff was a great event and the food was excellent. We don't change ratings based on good food, but it does increase the chance of "Not Larry" covering your event in person!

According to our Democratic source, most of the Democratic activists are angry with Shannon and refusing to help his campaign over some of his votes. We have also been told Shannon has a real problem with keeping staff on board with him and basically has started from scratch in this campaign when no one wanted to come back.

While these factors look good for a possible Hyland upset we have this race as "Leans Shannon" for two reasons.

#1) Money- Shannon has always been an excellent fundraiser. He has a lot of cash in the bank, while Hyland who has not yet proven to be a good fundraiser in either of his campaigns spent what he raised for the primary. The July 15th report will tell us a lot about this race, Hyland has to catch up, and fast.

#2) Overeaching- We are seeing signs of a Hyland overreach after this primary. His website uses very strong language that "Steve Shannon has failed us", which may be too strong for this point in the campaign. Also, a GOP source complained to us that Hyland was lit dropping very partisan GOP lit from the primary to all homes in Nottoway precinct after the primary. According to the State Board of Elections website Nottoway is a very strong Democratic precinct that went for John Kerry by almost 300 votes. The piece apparently said Republican on it at least 8 times.

If Hyland can raise some money, and calm down enough to take a serious look at how to appeal to the vast number of independents in this district we could have a race on our hands. Until then, it's a "Leans Democratic" and something to keep on eye on.

UPDATE: NRR has a post up. He feels it is a little stronger to Shannon then we do. We really like NRR's blog a lot.

NOT Jim Gilmore Column

2005-06-26T08:00:00.000-04:00

By NOT Jim Gilmore

A special to Not Larry Sabato

Firstly, thank you very much to Not Larry Sabato for this opportunity to talk about this important election. I had considered requesting a chance to provide another perspective to the Cuccinelli and Englin columns, however I wanted to wait and see if that was needed. Since they were both cancelled, I was glad to offer to fill in! There's nothing better for a politician than an open microphone.

A little about myself. I serve as a member of the Virginia House of Delegates and I was part of the "gang of 17" that saved the state from last years budget stalemate.

The gang of 17 is really a myth. We had two key votes on the budget last year. 15 of us voted the correct way in both votes. Those members were Bryant, Carrico, Dillard, Fralin, Hurt, Ingram, Chris Jones, Danny Marshall, Morgan, Nutter, Oder, Parrish, Rust, Ed Scott, and Tata. Two others joined us on the first vote, Callahan and Reese. There's your first seventeen. On the second vote we lost those two but we picked up May and Orrock. There's your second seventeen.

The Democrats had 37 seats then and were able to deliver 36 of those votes- all except Joannou. You can see how tight the math was- 36 Democrats and 15 Republicans on both votes. The minimum 51. Four others who might give us some cushion if they liked the bill.

Today that coalition would stand at 52 with the Paula Miller victory to fill Thelma Drake's open seat.

When you look at the numbers this way it's easy to understand how important this month's primaries were for our coalition. The anti-taxers may have only challenged six of us BUT we need every seat. If they win 51 seats with Jerry Kilgore as Governor, then an aging and quite frankly, less popular Senate majority will be all that stands between an unraveling of all we worked so hard for.

In the end VCAP and others took two nominations from us. Chris Craddock's victory over Gary Reese was not a major blow as Gary was not one of our "solid 15". Michael Golden's win in Jim Dillard's seat will reduce our majority back to 51 if he is successful in November.

The point I want to make is this. 17 of 19 renominations is great, but we are not picking up seats on the GOP side with our message. We do not have seats to spare.

Now according to NLS all 17 of us are already returning to Richmond. That's 14 solid votes, 3 possible. Because of Joannou we need at least 38 Democrats elected to hold our majority in the next session.

If we use the NLS projections of 79 seats so far, the breakdown is as follows.

49 GOP (32 NO, 14 YES, 3 MAYBE)
28 DEM (1 NO, 27 YES)
2 IND (2 NO)

That's 41 Pro-Virginia, 35 Anti-Virginia and 3 fingers in the wind. With 21 seats left, everyone needs to be very aware that we have not won this election yet.

The outlook is even shakier from there.

In the 99th District Rob Whittman will succeed Albert Pollard. Rob satisfied both factions in the GOP to get the nomination uncontested. But he can only vote with one of us. That's a solid Yes vote turned into a question mark.

The 67th will likely go to Chris Craddock. Unless something changes there, that's a loss of one possible for us.

The 37th could go either way, but we feel good that if Republican candidate John Mason wins he will be part of our majority as was Chap Petersen, so we should be good there.

Our numbers are also questionable in the 6th, 35th, 41st and 87th.

When we had conference calls with the Democrats last year one of them remarked that it "was like being in the majority". Indeed we have forged a majority for the Commonwealth. Please don't let our success in June lull you into believing we have won this election. We must win these competitive elections in November to be able to keep our end of the bargain.

If you find this article to be helpful let me know. I would be happy to do another one in the future talking about where the numbers currently stand for passing a real fix to our transportation mess next year. That will take even more seats for our coalition then just holding the line on the last budget.

Southwest Virginia

2005-06-25T16:15:00.000-04:00

We're finally ready to start calling the races in Southwest Virginia. Let's start with the 3 easy ones. All three of these incumbents will either be unopposed or very lightly opposed.

3rd District: Jackie Stump
Safe Democratic

4th District: Joe Johnson
Safe Democratic

5th District: Bill Carrico
Safe Republican

The makeup of the House now has 49 GOP, 28 DEM, and 2 IND.

With both IND members joining the GOP Caucus, we can now officially project that the Republicans have won the House of Delegates.

June 25th, more than 4 months out from election day...

Now the last 21 uncalled races will be over the margin.

GOP Column Coming this weekend!

2005-06-25T16:00:00.000-04:00

We got an email this morning from a moderate GOP legislator who has offered to take up the Republican side for columns on our site. He'll either be blogging as "Not Ken Cuccinelli" or "Not Jim Gilmore". Should be coming out tonight or tomorrow. This should be exciting!

NOT Brian Moran Column

2005-06-24T13:30:00.000-04:00

By NOT Brian Moran

A special for readers of NOT Larry Sabato

There are many reasons the Democrats are solidly in the minority in the halls of power in Richmond. Some are out of the control of our Democratic "leadership" (I use that term loosely in relation to our current crop). But others land squarely on their shoulders.

This week at our meeting we could see them so clearly.

I hope to see the appalling number of districts in which Democrats don't bother to run somebody addressed another day, but for now I want to focus on even lower hanging fruit: the party hacks who do nothing to actually help the brave souls who do step up to the plate to challenge Republicans.

Brian Moran, how many doors have you knocked on for the party darling, Greg Werkheiser?

Lindsey Reynolds, how many of his phone banks have you been to?

How about you, Doug Dodson?

Kerry Donley, manage to hit any doors for challengers before you fled back to high school?

Among many lessons the elected Democrats should have learned from the drubbing they took by young Englin in the 45th is that our names mean NOTHING. Contrary to the sour grapes aired on this blog, coming from nowhere to beat five candidates, two of them with endorsement lists of electeds as long as the eye could see, with almost a third of the vote and by five points, counts as a big win! Had as many electeds spent three hours knocking on doors for their chosen candidate as put their names on various pieces of direct mail, websites, and letters, you'd all be celebrating the win of nominee Garvey or Mosqueda, rather than fretting about the win of nominee Englin.

What makes the situation worse is instead of learning a lesson from this defeat and welcoming the young man, caucus members this week spent much time complaining about his victory and spreading rumors that he may run for Caucus Chairman. My colleagues should know that I am not impressed with this type of behavior and in fact lose total respect for those members spreading this rumor rather then calling Mister Englin up and asking him themselves.

On another political blog, an Englin volunteer spelled out a "secret": hard work wins elections. The Democratic leadership in this state is strong on the easy stuff - attending events and adding their names to lists - but incredibly weak when it comes to doing the hard work it takes to win. It's costing us dearly.

I won't stay anonymous long. When you see a Democratic legislator out working harder then ever before to match what our new young friend has done you will know who I am.

The longer I stay in Richmond politics, the more I understand term limit laws.

Updates!

2005-06-24T12:30:00.000-04:00

Not Bob Roberts copy of our blog is off to an excellent start. He scooped us today on the story we are working on with GOP candidate Matt Lohr in the 26th District (Harrisonburg). We are still waiting for audio, if we get it we will report on it ASAP and let you know what was said, and more important, the tone in which it was said. Obviously, if true, this story is much bigger if the attack on JMU was serious rather than joking.

Not Mark Rozell has these thoughts on our thread yesterday.

Our first post from Not Brian Moran will be up in just a few minutes!

No Cuccinelli Cocktail

2005-06-24T08:30:00.000-04:00

We got an email late last night from Senator Ken Cuccinelli letting us know he was going to be cancelling the Cuccinelli cocktail. No more information was in the email. If Ken would like to explain further we'll let him do so here, if not, that's all the information we have for you.

Obviously on that notice we have no GOP replacement for him this week. We have been working on a Democratic replacement for David Englin, and we have interest in a one time column from one legislator who "has some things on their chest". If that comes through today we'll post it as "Not Brian Moran".

58th District

2005-06-23T22:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Safe GOP

Our sources in greater Charlottesville tell us the campaign in the 58th District is over. Incumbent Rob Bell is strong, the district is GOP and his challenger Steve Koleszar is out telling people he doesn't need to raise much money- his campaign is "grassroots". Sorry Steve, to grow the grass you have to buy the seed.

We're calling this one for Bell.

41st and 42nd District Updates

2005-06-23T00:00:00.000-04:00

42nd
Outlook: Leans Republican

From our good old source AlexGOP:

Driving home tonight, guess what I saw on the Englin's front lawn??? Democrat Greg Werkheiser. I walked back to try to listen into the conversation but couldn't hear much without being obvious, so I will just assume they were talking about being pro-partial birth abortion...

Interesting. If Werkheiser is listening to people like Englin we may have to upgrade him.

41st
Outlook: Toss Up

Also, we got a post on another thread in the blog letting us know David Marsden had updated his endorsement list and now had Cathy Belter on his list. Good move by Marsden.

Couple of questions:

1) How many of these endorsements live in this district? I don't know where most of these people live, is there a Fairfax Democrat that can tell us?

2) Since Marsden's campaign apparently reads this blog and listened to our critique, here's another one. If you list an endorsement, list their title and district correctly.

Dick Saslaw has not been a Delegate in over 25 years, he is a Senator.

Toddy Puller has also been a Senator for 6 years. She is not a Delegate.

Brian Moran represents the 46th district, not the 35th.

96th District

2005-06-22T12:00:00.000-04:00

Melanie Rapp got the lowest percentage of any GOP incumbent re-elected in 2003, but this time Democrats have failed to recruit a candidate to challenge her. Given her prior performance we would have avoided calling the 96th for Melanie against a wet sock, but since the ballot is empty we can now project her as a winner this year. She will join Jack Reid and Bob Hull on Moira's "this could happen to you if you don't vote" tour.

Englin Elixir

2005-06-22T10:00:00.000-04:00

We are having to cancel the Englin Elixir because of some things we won't get into.

We jumped the gun on announcing after we got approval from David's spouse, and we apologize for that.

We are currently working on getting another Democratic celebrity poster to fill in for David Englin.

As far as we know the Cuccinelli Cocktail is still on.

Primary challenge to Jim Moran in 2006

2005-06-21T18:00:00.000-04:00

An email we just got. Developing...

David isn't the only Englin with designs on public office. People who were worried about David's support for the Morans should have looked a little deeper - who do you really think decided to put the Rosenberg sign out front of the Englin house? There's going to be an Englin running for Congress in 2006, but not the one you think. I know for a fact that Shayna has already been getting pledges for money for her race. "Team Englin" volunteers were told not to go far, that they'd have another Enlgin to stump for. David Englin is a nice guy just trying to do right. Shayna is the one with the great big ego and the great big ambition. Watch out, Alexandria. You may have wanted one Englin, but now you're stuck with another.

Where in the World is Chuck Caputo?

2005-06-20T13:00:00.000-04:00

A source inside the Democratic Coordinated Campaign tells me the following:

Dear NLS,

I am a loyal Democrat, and I only write you this because your blog is so well read that perhaps someone far above my paygrade will see this and fix the situation.

I work for the coordinated campaign. We are focused on the statewide races, but we do coordinate our efforts with local Delegate candidates.

After Chris Craddock was nominated I was excited for a great pick up opportunity. I was more optimistic when I read here that you felt Chuck Caputo was a strong candidate for the seat.

However this is what I have learned since then.

Chuck is out of the country. Has been since before the primary. Won't be back for another week. His manager said he needed to "refresh in Europe".

Speaking of the manager, it is a 70 year old man who has no idea what is going on. This guy was asking the most insane questions, I won't say what they were as I am sure some Republicans are reading this, but let me just say he lacked any basic knowledge of how things operate.

Calling Democratic Leaders: Can someone PLEASE step in and get this guy the help he needs so he can defeat Chris Craddock.

Signed,

Mad in McLean

So does anyone know where Chuck is today? Big Ben in London? Eifel Tower in Paris? Bull Riding in Spain? Eating in Italy? Let us know, maybe Kenton Ngo who did the maps for the statewide primaries will do another map of "Where in the World is Chuck Caputo".

Scandal Breaking....

2005-06-20T12:00:00.000-04:00

We are hearing rumors of a scandal getting ready to break in the 26th district regarding GOP candidate Matt Lohr. Once we get anything concrete we will let you know what is happening...

Developing...

41st District Update

2005-06-20T00:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Toss Up

This one has gotten stranger.

First of all, former Indy candidate/Dillard challenger Michael Golden is now the owner of Jim Dillard's Republican nomination by slamming former Dillard primary challenger Bill Finerfrock. The results were:

Michael Golden 2,359 (73.6%)
Bill Finerfrock 848 (26.4%)

Golden, who was supported in the primary by both Senators Cuccinelli and O'Brien will now face party switching Dillard aide David Marsden in the general election.

Here's what we have heard.

Local Democrats have still not united around Marsden. Anyone who knows the 41st district will be surprised to see local school board member Cathy Belter who was pushed out of running is still missing from Marsden's endorsements. We understand divisions from the June primaries- but it has been over six months here...

We also received an email from another Springfield Democrat telling us that Marsden was having an event this week (maybe it was last week) with Governor Mark Warner up in McLean. As this local Democrat wrote "Is he too embarrassed of us to have an event within 10 miles of the district? The Governor can't come here to campaign?"

Meanwhile Golden has his own problems.

His status as one of only two VCAP candidates left has given Marsden almost automatic endorsements from teachers, firefighters and most other groups that endorse.

Also according to one local GOPer Marsden has been going door to door telling Republicans that he worked for Gilmore and is leaving out the part about running as a Democrat. Since these would otherwise be automatic Golden votes it does not help him to have to be reeducating his base on who the GOP nominee is. Great strategy by Marsden.

Finally Marsden has outraised Golden by almost $12,000 (87-75) but has a $33,000 cash on hand advantage as of June 1st because of the Republican primary that has probably gotten even greater since then.

On the other hand, Golden was out getting high visibility during the primary with that money, so it wasn't totally wasted.

For now, this district which voted almost identical to Virginia for Governor and Lt. Governor in 2001, and went for President Bush by less than one percentage point is a total tossup.

In the 37th we called it "Crypt Skeleton vs. Opie". Here on the comments a month ago someone compared Marsden to "Lurch" from the Addams Family. We'll go with that. So what about Michael Golden... We got it!

The 41st is "Lurch vs. Mary Tyler Moore". Do you agree?

Women in Northern Virginia

2005-06-19T19:00:00.000-04:00

Northern Virginia was the leader in the 1980s and 1990s on putting women (mostly Democrats) in the General Assembly. But recently the rest of Virginia has been catching up while Northern Virginia has gone back the other way.

Northern Virginia

In Marian Van Landingham's 45th district voters rejected outright appeals on the basis of sex to give the seat to David Englin. That's minus one for women next year right off the top.

In the four competitive districts in Fairfax County that we have covered from the start (35th, 37th, 41st, 42nd) only two incumbents (Shannon and Albo) are on the ballot, yet all 6 other nominees are men. Only one district, the 37th even fielded a female candidate in the primary.

The two other Fairfax County seats on the board are the 39th (Likely Democratic) where the Republican candidate is a man, against female incumbent Vivian Watts meaning at best a hold for women, and both the Democratic and Republican nominees for Gary Reese's recently opened seat are men.

This is on top of Adam Ebbin replacing a woman in 2003, and Bob Brink replacing a woman in 1999. As well of course to the 35th mentioned above where Steve Shannon replaced JeanneMarie Devolities-Davis.

Meanwhile in the outer suburbs women have the advantage for a hold in the 51st with Michelle McQuigg (Currently Likely Republican), and have a shot for one pickup in the 52nd with Hilda Barg. So at best, if all races with women go for the female candidate in Northern Virginia, the net will be the same.

Rest of Virginia

Elsewhere women have holding their own and beginning to pick up ground. In last years special election Paula Miller replaced incoming Congresswoman Thelma Drake. Jennifer McClellan was elected to replace Viola Baskerville this year. There also appears to be a likely pickup with the primary win of Roslyn Tyler to replace Paul Councill.

Women incumbents like Beverly Sherwood, Kathy Byron, Jeion Ward, Mamye Bacote and others are mostly safe.

Possible longshot female pickups include Supriya Christopher and Linda Crandell.

Also interesting is that none of VCAP's challengers were women.

-----------------

So what gives? Is this a trend or is it just coincidence? It's especially interesting in Northern Virginia where so many of the competitive seats are, given that when all else is equal women have tended to defeat men in general elections. If it is a trend who's fault is it?

71st District Primary Recap

2005-06-19T18:59:00.000-04:00

The Richmond Times-Dispatch has an excellent recap of the 71st in today's paper. Check it out. We have projected Jennifer McClellan as the November winner and the new Delegate-Elect.

84th District Update

2005-06-18T19:00:00.000-04:00

Outlook: Likely Republican

Democrats nominated a good candidate here in Supriya Christopher, but she has not been getting any breaks.

First of all, as we have told you before this is a solid GOP district. The closest any Democrat has come here was Mark Warner's six point loss in 2001.

Incumbent Bob McDonnell then managed to hand off the GOP nomination to his aide Sal Iaquinto without opposition in a year where it seemed every GOP race had a nomination fight.

Then McDonnell went and won the nomination for Attorney General giving Iaquinto a well known and locally popular ticket mate to run with. Meanwhile no Democratic candidate from the area is running statewide.

Given that this district has one of the lowest turnout rates in the state because of the military presence, turnout is even more important and a local turnout booster is a major factor.

Last week on that primary day, Republicans cast 84% of the ballots in this district, giving Christopher a list of only 281 Democrats to work with. It's doubtful anything new was gained by that.

Finally, with all these advantages, Iaquinto has taken a small fundraising lead, and has spent less giving him a $17,000 cash on hand advantage as of June 1st.

We may call this one soon.

Statewide Campaigns (AG)

2005-06-18T18:00:00.000-04:00

We have avoided doing much coverage of the statewide elections during the primaries unless they impacted the House races. Now that the primaries are over, we will be increasing our coverage of the statewide races. With the exception of 2001 when Mark Warner lost 13 seats in the House of Delegates while he was becoming Governor, recent statewide elections have a major impact on House races. 2001 will likely stay the exception as the problems Democrats had were more redistricting based then top of the ticket.

Today, was the first debate for Attorney General. The AP already has a story up. One thing was very surprising. Bob McDonnell was trying to convince Creigh Deeds he is more moderate then his ticket. I understand downballot is supposed to do some dirty work, but saying your opponent is the most moderate Democrat on the ballot? How does that help McDonnell?

Round one to Deeds here.

Summertime Blogging

2005-06-17T13:30:00.000-04:00

Major Announcement

We are thrilled to announce two celebrity bloggers that will be joining us every Friday this summer!

Virginia Senator Ken Cuccinelli is well known as the "Campaigner in Chief" for the Virginia GOP. Ken will be offering his opinion on one House candidate, or issue affecting House races each week.

Presumptive Virginia Delegate-Elect David Englin made a major point in his campaign of wanting to be a Democrat that helped other candidates from his seat. He'll use our platform, along with his very able wife Shayna, to highlight his opinion on one House candidate, or issue affecting House races each week.

We're calling this weekly series

"The Cuccinelli Cocktail vs. The Englin Elixir"!

Check back next Friday for the first installment!

Until then, we'll keep up our review of the primaries and where they leave us for the November elections.

Not Mark Rozell's New Blog

2005-06-17T11:30:00.000-04:00

We congratulate Not Mark Rozell, a regular poster here, on his new blog. Apparently this comment from 2:14 p.m. on election day was so embarrassing to him that he needed to find a way to redeem himself:

Not Mark Rozell said...
The numbers in the 67th are way too lopsided to spell a huge victory for Craddock, despite what his supporters are saying here" .... "but I'm betting those high GOP numbers and woefully low Dem numbers in the 67th spell a tighter race than Craddock will admit. There are definitely Dem crossovers represented in there, even though this is a solid GOP district and there is no local Dem race to draw them to the polls.Remember, I have said all along this race would go for Craddock. Now I'm having second thoughts. There are too many firefighters and teachers involved on the ground to put this in the Craddock column. "
2:14 PM

LOL. This should be fun to watch.

Primary Predictions Perfect

2005-06-16T20:00:00.000-04:00

A few people have asked us to review our predictions for the primary.

They were perfect!

Before we go over them one by one, pay attention to this. Elections are not static things. They move all the time, in little steps and big jumps.

Primaries are particularly hard to call because of the low turnout, and the different types of turnout each candidate is targeting. Just because their plan is good, or they are running the right kind of campaign does not mean the voters will be there for them.

With that in mind, it's impossible to see how we could have done better.

On the statewide races, with bloggers split in many different camps spinning you on candidates, we cut through the spin.

We let you know why Bill Bolling was a favorite for Lt. Governor even while Connaughton was claiming a big move. In the end as we said, to win Connaughton would have to win two uphill battles, the McDonnell voters in Hampton Roads and the Kilgore voters in Southwest. He had a plausible argument to them, but in the end this went to Bolling as we expected.

We told you exactly what Fitch's goal was (and he fell a few points short of that) against Jerry Kilgore.

We explained why Leslie Byrne was going to win the Democratic primary. As we said it turned out almost exactly like the 1997 GOP primary. Most pundits were busy predicting a Petersen victory- he finished a distant third.

We also told you about Bob McDonnell's advantages among Northern Virginia Connaughton voters as well as Southwest voters and predicted his victory in the Attorney General's race.

House Races- Safe

We rated 5 primaries as "Safe" and projected all 5 to win in November:

Prediction Result
Toscano-------------------- Toscano by 30 points

Easy win for us here.

Bryant-------------------------- Bryant by 50 points

Another easy win for us.

Parrish--------------------------- Parrish by 10 points

This one closed hard at the end, but was never in doubt. Literally, at 6:59 p.m. on election day 10 points was the closest Chapman had been the entire race. We told you Chapman had got some momentum with the Cuccinelli endorsement, and we also told you that would not be enough to get back into this race.

Hargrove -----------------------Hargrove by 48 points.

Easy win for us.

Wardrup----------------------- Wardrup by 48 points.

Another easy win.

House Races- Likely

We rated two primaries as likely winners. Both won.

Golden--------------------------- Golden by 48 points

Easy win there, we probably should have called this one safe, but we were too busy with close races in the days before election day.

Howell---------------------------- Howell by 22

We told you Howell would win this one unless Boose could make a move with the "droopy drawers issue". She tried but never quite did it strongly enough to make this race close. Or maybe most people liked the bill....

House Races- Leans

Mason----------------------------- Mason by 21

We had this as "Likely Mason" to begin with and made it a "Leans Mason" when it became clear that Chap was going to drain some of his vote into the Democratic primary. Mason's win was very impressive considering that was happening at the same time.

Purkey----------------------------- Purkey by 26

In this Virginia Beach primary Purkey pulled away to a large victory over Councilman Peter Schmidt. This race started out a lot closer, but as Schmidt began making himself a one issue, pro tax increase candidate- Republican voters in the Beach couldn't stomach it. This race is a classic one where issues overrode personal popularity.

May-------------------------------- May by 19

Joe May had the clear edge here and gave us another correctly called race. We kept this as a "Leans" rather then a "Likely" because of this district voting so overwhelmingly against Russ Potts in 2003. Oprison could not capitalize on that and this margin was bigger then it should have been.

McEachin--------------------------- McEachin by 1.3%

Phew! This was the closest we came to losing a race where we listed a favorite. McEachin had the clear edge here, but low turnout combined with Miles making a fantastic showing in his home base of Charles City made this one an election night thriller. We hear much of the credit for Miles late surge goes to his campaign manager Kwame Boadi who our sources tell us is a rising star in the Virginia Democratic party. We'll keep an eye out for where he goes next.

House Races- Toss Ups

45th------------------------------ Englin by 5%

We had this as a Leans Garvey to begin, then a Toss Up, and finally towards the end a slight lean to Englin. Englin really survived a lot here which we will talk more about later, but once he made it through the fire, we could feel a victory coming on here in the last week.

37th------------------------------ Bulova by 12%

We had this as a leans Bulova and then moved it to a tossup as Chap rolled up momentum and turnout became very unpredictable. Probably should have just kept it where it was, but too many question marks came up here because of the top of the ticket turnout.

71st------------------------------- McClellan by 29%

We had this one as "Likely McClellan" and then moved it to a tossup. Again, top of ticket momentum had a big impact, it was hard to tell how well Viola would move her base with all the problems her campaign was having. We told you if Viola was over 70% in her district McClellan would win big. Well, Viola hit that number, and McClellan indeed won big.

30th------------------------------ Scott by 29%

Once again the primary turnout made this election a big question mark. As we saw numbers coming in on the turnout we called this one in the afternoon as a Scott victory, and that indeed held up big on election night. Democratic crossover was big here.

35th------------------------------ Hyland by 10%

This one was a wild race with Hyland getting outspent by almost a 4-1 margin. We got a lot of emails from people claiming Robinson was well ahead and it should be called for him. We feel good about ignoring all the fundraising hype and keeping this race as a tossup all the way through.

54th------------------------------ Orrock by 10%

We told you this would be the second best showing for an anti-tax candidate and indeed it was. Almost every polling place was close, but in the end Kenney could not win enough places to pull this out. Democratic crossover was the difference here by a lot.

75th------------------------------ Tyler by 5%

We told you this could go for Tyler, Flowers or Councill. On election night Tyler and Flowers went back and forth. In the end Councill pulled enough votes from Flowers, and Tyler was the most consistent district wide and won a historic victory.

67th------------------------------ Craddock by 32%

We had this as a tossup, but the Democrats turned on Reese late and without them he really turned into a lame duck. We called this one as going for Craddock all day long on election day, and he proved us right in a big way.

100% in the primary. We hope to be able to that again in November.

Recap of 37th District Primary

2005-06-15T19:00:00.000-04:00

We're going to spend the next few days updating the right hand side of the site, and getting ready to update ratings. Today and tomorrow, we'll give you some recaps of the primaries.

The story of the 37th was incumbent Chap Petersen. Chap clearly made a decision to blitz his district for turnout for the Lt. Governors primary. While turnout is great, every vote counts (insert third cliche here) history has proven that you won't win a statewide primary by making a heavy push in 1% of the state. Chap got great turnout, won all the precincts here and finished a distant third.

But Chap's GOTV made a huge difference in the primaries for his seat.

As we discussed before, John Mason and Chap shared a lot of voters in very independent Fairfax City. That forced many of them to have to pick primaries when they would have liked to vote for both.

Mason succeeded in keeping enough people in the Republican primary to beat back Jim Kaplan for the nomination. For the record, the 37th was the only district where someone was posting incorrect turnout numbers here on election day. We said we could not longer project a winner when afternoon turnout for the R's at one precinct was only 20 people. All the way until then, we had said this was a likely or leaning Mason victory. The truth was Mason was very successful in keeping a significant vote in the Republican primary, and won big in Fairfax City. Fairfax County was a little more spotty for Mason with some strong precincts and some weak ones. In the end, Mason was indeed the winner.

John Mason 1,683 (60.3%) 55% in County, 69% in City
Jim Kaplan 1,106 (39.7%)

Chap also had a big impact on the Democratic primary. Clearly Chap's county voters were much more inclined to David Bulova then his opponent Janet Oleszek. Oleszek was not able to run a complete campaign in the County, some precincts she stayed very close, others were a blowout. We had rated this likely Bulova, then leans Bulova and finally a tossup. Oleszek kept the race close and showed why we had closed the rating, but in the end Bulova won a solid victory.

Rather then blow a post election kiss, Raising Kaine took a little potshot at us for calling this race a "tossup". Given the clear momentum from Oleszek at the end here, the large turnout that was the most unpredictable in the state and the final margin we feel pretty good about this call. In fact, if we had it to do over again, we'd still call it a tossup! The final results were

David Bulova 1,969 (56.6%) 59% in County, 52% in City
Janet Oleszek 1,511 (43.4%)

Here's an interesting email we got on the 37th this morning.

NLS, when you talk about the final results of the 37th I would like to bring something to your attention. Many Fairfax City Republicans like Chap and voted for him in the Democratic primary. While neither Democratic candidate was a dud (like Leslie Byrne) it was clear that Janet was going to play stronger in the City in November. My husband for one crossed over and voted for Bulova to give Mason a better shot in November. Again, nothing bad about David Bulova, but we just like our chances better with him on the ballot.

Very interesting. We notice much stronger results for Bulova in and around Mason's neighborhood.

This race is a tossup and will probably be the #1 race to watch in Virginia this year for Delegate. We are giving John Mason the leader position on the right, but, as a famous announcer once said:

Let's Get Ready to Ruuuuuuuuuuuummmmmmbbbbbbbblllllllllllleeeeeeeee!!!

UPDATE: Raising Kaine interviews Bulova after his primary win. This is much better than the first interview Bulova did with them. We can see some improvement in him as a candidate.

As far as "pantsgate" goes, Bulova mentions that those were in fact black jeans, and only cost $30. Black Jeans? They sell those anymore? Is Bulova getting his clothes at gothic underground? Or a Nine Inch Nails Concert?

Tip to Bulova: When doing your November mail go with blue jeans. Don't whitewash them or peg them. Don't dress up as a crossing guard. Don't pretend to be a kid.

Bulova has one trump card up his sleeve if he chooses to use it. Has anyone else noticed how much Mason looks like the skeleton in "Tales from the Crypt"?

SECOND UPDATE: An email just pointed out how much David Bulova looks like Ron Howard (aka Opie). Should we call this election "Crypt Skeleton v. Opie"?

Open Thread

2005-06-14T23:59:00.000-04:00

Whatever you want to say about the election results tonight. Analysis, rants, whatever.

Read below for our calls as we make them

Projected Winners

2005-06-14T23:58:00.000-04:00

Kilgore defeats Fitch 7:14 p.m.
Byrne defeats Baskerville, Petersen, Puckett 7:31 p.m.
McDonnell defeats Baril 7:34 p.m.
Englin defeats Garvey, Lay, Mosqueda, Mandala and Hobson 7:46 p.m.
Bolling defeats Connaughton 7:51 p.m.
Craddock defeats Reese 7:59 p.m.
Golden defeats Finnerfrock 7:59 p.m.
Mason defeats Kaplan 8:00 p.m.
Bulova defeats Oleszek 8:06 p.m.
Orrock defeats Kenney 8:10 p.m.
Toscano defeats Tingley, Collins 8:14 p.m.
Bryant defeats Garber 8:21 p.m.
Parrish defeats Chapman 8:29 p.m.
Howell defeats Boose 8:57 p.m.
Hargrove defeats Clemmons 9:04 p.m.
Wardrup defeats Miles 9:06 p.m.
Purkey defeats Schmidt 9:07 p.m.
May defeats Oprison 9:19 p.m.
Scott defeats Jarvis 9:23 p.m.
Hyland defeats Robinson, Purves 9:29 p.m.
Tyler defeats Councill, Flowers, Nicholson and Goodwyn 9:32 p.m.
McClellan defeats Law 11:44 p.m.
McEachin defeats Miles 11:48 p.m.

74th District

2005-06-14T23:48:00.000-04:00

In the closest race of the night, former Delegate Donald McEachin has regained his seat by 48 votes over incumbent Floyd Miles.

This is a safe Democratic seat, so we can now project Don McEachin as the new Delegate.

As a great man once said: "Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss."

The House is now:
46 GOP
26 DEM
2 IND
26 UND

71st District

2005-06-14T23:44:00.000-04:00

We are now ready to project Jennifer McClellan as the winner in the 71st District over Melvin Law.

This is a safe Democratic seat, so we can also project Jennifer as the new Delegate.

The House is now:
46 GOP
25 DEM
2 IND
27 UND

Lt. Governor- Dem

2005-06-14T21:47:00.000-04:00

With all of Richmond City outstanding, the Lt. Governor's race is going to tighten up on the Democratic side between Baskerville and Byrne. However, Byrne's current lead is more than the RAW VOTES of Tim Kaine in Richmond City in 2001. We don't think Baskerville can get a bigger MARGIN then Tim got VOTES. So we feel comfertable with our projection of Leslie Byrne, but do note that it will tighten up here.